Changes in groundwater irrigation withdrawals due to climate change in Kansas

Abstract Warming temperatures increase the evapotranspiration demand of crops, leading to an in irrigation and exacerbating water scarcity. Previous research relies on models requirements understand potential impacts climate change, but these have significant uncertainty ignore risk-averse behavior irrigators. Here we develop regression estimate how changes vapor pressure deficit precipitation affect groundwater withdrawals for corn, soybeans, wheat using well-level data from Kansas portion High Plains Aquifer. Withdrawals are expected all three with largest soybeans. Even after accounting CO2 improvements transpiration efficiency, find that total by 5.9% (7.6%) mid-century under RCP 4.5 (8.5). The is accelerate decline aquifer levels therefore important consider when projecting future conditions.